Impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on TB, HIV, and childhood vaccination programmes in Indonesia, and policy and health system factors fostering programme resilience (COHERE; COVID Health System Resilience)

Funder: OUCRU (Wellcome Funding) 

Principal Investigators: Iqbal Elyazar and Raph Hamers

Location of activity: Indonesia

Indonesia has the second-highest number of COVID-19 cases (>1.5 million) and deaths (>40,000) in Asia and an estimated 61% excess mortality in Jakarta. Moreover, concerns have been raised around the impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic and lockdowns on the government’s health services.

However, to date, no rigorous analyses have been conducted to quantify national and district-level impacts on the care cascades for HIV, TB and childhood vaccination uptake. Based on public reports on the HIV national programme 2016-2020, we conducted preliminary analyses that suggested reductions in HIV testing, diagnosis and care cascade in the most COVID-19-affected provinces, although more complete (including 2021) and granular (weekly/monthly) data are required to draw meaningful conclusions.

This study aims to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns on TB and HIV care cascades and childhood vaccination uptake, in Indonesia, at the national and district levels, by key risk groups. In addition, we will define the policy landscape and health system preparedness indicators that were associated with more resilient districts and further define the most vulnerable populations based on wealth, health care access, and other factors.



  1. To measure the impact of COVID-19 on programmes for TB, HIV and childhood vaccinations in Indonesia at the national, provincial and district levels.
  2. To identify policy and health system factors of resilience and key risk groups.