Modeling COVID-19 in Vietnam

Funder: OUCRU (Wellcome funding)

Principal Investigator: Marc Choisy

Collaborator(s): Dr. Pham Quang Thai, Epidemiology Department, National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE), Hanoi.

Location of activity: Vietnam

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to develop a mathematical model of ICU burden in time and space. The model will be calibrated with data collected in Vietnam when available (most of the time), or with data published from other countries (in particular what concerns risk factors of severe cases). The present project will also produce data on the preexisting level of population protection against coronavirus before the COVID-19 and against SARS-Cov 2 as the epidemic progress (if it does).

Importance: Such a model of ICU burden is required by the National Steering Committee for COVID-19 response. Such a model will be used to assist fast decision making if a crisis occurs. As such, the model is an original enough piece of research to be published in itself. The framework of the model is generic enough to be applied to other contexts than Vietnam.

Primary Objectives

  • Predict the ICU burden in space and time with and without relocation of critical equipment from hospital to hospital.
  • Look for policies (including quarantine, lock-down and stay-at-home, potentially with different implementations by locality and age class) that minimize the ICU burden.
  • Estimate the baseline force of infection against coronaviruses, as well as the rate of waning immunity (if there is).
  • Generate a map of pre-existing population levels of protection against SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses. Test the level of cross-protection between SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses in Vietnam.

Outputs to date