Background 

The COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly in densely populated areas like Jakarta. Human mobility played a key role in how quickly the virus spread. This study aimed to develop a model that links population movement to the rise in COVID-19 cases in Jakarta. The researchers used mobility data from Facebook and daily COVID-19 case numbers from April 2020 to August 2021.

This study is one of many initiatives by international consortium Strengthening Preparedness in the Asia-Pacific Region through Knowledge (SPARK).

Study Design

The research used a complex mathematical model known as the Hawkes process to study the relationship between human mobility and COVID-19 transmission. The model considered different factors, including population movement and infection patterns in Jakarta and surrounding areas. The researchers tested the model using both real and simulated data.

Goal

Create a model to explain how population movement affects the spread of COVID-19. Specific goals of the study include:

• Identify which areas are most responsible for spreading the virus
• Pinpoint the areas that helped control the spread the most.

Status

Research manuscript will be published soon.